Hall of Fame: My fictional vote

It's that time of the year again. The list of candidates in the ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2008 has just been released, and the long-tenured members of the BBWAA are hard at work (or maybe not) figuring out their ballots. And, even though they don't count, common fans like yours truly show an equal amount of passion and dedication to the subject. Watching and evaluating careers to figure out the best of the best is a subject I've always found fascinating, and the result is this post, where I'll pick players who, IMO, deserve to be inducted in Cooperstown's hallowed halls. The list of available players is found here.

For those who don't know, I'll explain my rating methods. I'm a huge fan of OPS+ as an elegant but accurate measure of evaluating hitting performance. I make adjustments when necessary, and consider different baselines depending on position. For defense, anything before the advent of play-by-play fielding metrics is probably best evaluated by reputation, and I certainly take a good look at that. For pitching, I look at runs allowed (both earned and unearned), with a look at how he was helped by the defenses behind him. All this creates a "value added" view of what constitutes a Hall of Famer, which I'm willing to bend for special cases (Lou Brock makes a terrible HOF choice according to this view, but having retired with both the single-season and career records for stolen bases counts for a lot).

So, without any further ado, the lucky ones, in alphabetic order:


BERT BLYLEVEN: Sabermetrically-oriented fans have rallied to his cause for a long time, and the bandwagon has been picking up steam for a while. The best and most passionate efforts belong to Rich Lederer of baseballanalytsts.com, and I'll refer to him for a more in-depth look. A bumper crop of pitching during the Seventies seems to have spoiled writers, who now come to expect the 300 wins which he lacks, but he clears pretty much every other HOF hurdle you can think of: Almost 5000 innings pitched, 3701 strikeouts, 60 shutouts (both tops among non-HOFers), and an ERA+ of 118 which is pretty good for such a long career.

DAVID CONCEPCION: To understand his case, you need to understand the context. Shortstop has always been a critical and hard to fill position in the diamond, and fielding it superbly is so valuable that it can be, by itself, a ticket to the Hall (think of Dave Bancroft, Phil Rizzuto, Luis Aparicio or Ozzie Smith). Besides, the Seventies and Eighties saw the adoption of artificial turf in many parks, specially in the NL where Concepcion played, and of course his own home turf was artificial. This environment made possible that "hitters" of the quality of Enzo Hernandez or the inmortal Mario Mendoza to get regular playing time as shortstops. In such a place, where a capable fielding shortstop who wasn't completely terrible with the bat was worth his weight in gold, Concepcion delivered roughly average hitting performance (a roughly average 88 OPS+, with extra baserunning value), while consistently crossing this threshold during his peak years. And both reputation and quantitative analysis put him among the all-time greats at defending his position. There are many reasons why the Big Red Machine was as good as it was, but one that isn't stated often enough is that they had the best fielder and one of the best hitters available at what is considered by some the game's toughest position.

GOOSE GOSSAGE: Once upon a time, relief aces didn't just appear to nail the last three outs of a game with a three-run or lower difference. Once upon a time, the top reliever went out to put out fires whenever they appeared, sometimes as early as the second inning, and stayed in until the situation was safe. And the quintessential example of this paradigm is Gossage. Between 1977 and 1985 he produced what is probably the highest peak for a relief pitcher ever, and few other firemen match his career total of over 1800 innings pitched. His performance declined quite a bit after his peak passed, but he remained valuable until the end. Quite honestly, I find his absence from the Hall confounding, and I hope that his high vote total from last year means he will make the final push this time.

MARK MCGWIRE: With a career 162 OPS+ and a number of absolutely monstrous seasons (his 70-homer effort first among them, of course), there is no doubt that his career is that of a Hall of Famer. The question is how much of that (if any) is owed to performance enhancing drugs. This is a question that has yet to be answered, and may never be. In this question, more than any other relating to the Hall right now, personal opinion and gut feeling counts for a lot. And my opinion is that, while it may be likely that he used PEDs, they were pretty close to being a rising tide lifting all boats. Since he rose further than most, he gets this paragraph.

DALE MURPHY: While Jim Rice and Andre Dawson have gotten most of the attention among backlog outfielder, I sincerely believe that Murphy has the superior case. He was one of the best players in baseball during the mid-Eighties, combining OPS+es in the 140s and 150s at centerfield with excellent defense and durability in a run that produced two MVP awards. He declined quickly and hardly, but he played his way into my personal Hall during his remarkably high peak.

TIM RAINES: The highlight among the new eligibles, and probably the best player in the ballot. To illustrate this, let's compare his career stats to those of a no-brainer HOFer that played a similar position at around the same time, Tony Gwynn. Take away about 400 of Gwynn's singles, and replace them with the same number of walks and stolen bases, and the result is very similar to Raines' line. As for peak, he's got plenty: years of batting averages over .3oo, OBPs over .400, occasional power and 70 stolen bases with a historically good success rate. While this is the profile of one of the all-time great leadoff hitters, the feeling is that he might have trouble attracting the attention of voters. Maybe this is because he didn't get the big counting numbers, maybe it's because he spent his best years in the relative obscurity of Montreal, but my guess is that's because his career overlapped almost perfectly with that of a similar but clearly superior player. But then again, if Rickey Henderson is the litmus test of who becomes a Hall of Famer, then we need to kick about 90% of its occupants out. Passing on Raines would be one of the biggest gaffes the BBWAA could make.

ALAN TRAMMELL: Just like Raines might be overlooked for not being Rickey, Trammell is probably passed on for not being Cal Ripken. The difficulties in finding good offense from shortstops continued throughout the Eighties, but a threesome of players proved an exception to the rule, hence becoming extremely valuable. And Trammell is the last player of this group still outside the Cooperstown halls. This value is reflected on his peak; when you take into account position and defensive skill, it is about as high as McGwire's. However, even back then, he suffered of somewhat of an appreciation problem (the 1987 AL MVP award was blatantly stolen from him), which has carried over to his HOF voting performance, but make no mistake, this is a player who easily clears the established borderlines.

I think I've seen this movie before...

Marlins consider playing in Puerto Rico

MIAMI -- Major League Baseball approached the Marlins a few weeks ago about playing a few home games in Puerto Rico, and if the offer is right, the team said it would be receptive.

"It's extremely preliminary," said P.J. Loyello, the Marlins' senior vice president of communications and broadcasting. "It would have to make complete sense for us to even entertain the thought."

At least the travel part should be easier than last time.

The band gets back together, but with a new guitarist

Glavine returns to the Braves, for 8 mill

ATLANTA — Tom Glavine is coming home. The 303-game winner returned to the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, agreeing to an $8 million, one-year contract.

The agreement between the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner and the Braves was revealed by a person familiar with the deal who spoke on condition of anonymity because the team has not yet announced it.

The Braves are in a position where guaranteed mediocrity in the rotation would do them well, but can Glavine do that? And can anyone see him pitching past 2008?

I'm gonna get a Jays shirt

Marco Scutaro traded to Toronto

It looks like the A's are already trying to cut costs. Scutaro was likely to make $2 million-$2.5 million next year, and that was too much for a utilityman, even one who has been as valuable as Scutaro the last few years. Scutaro has received at least 300 at-bats in four straight seasons and posted an OPS in the 690-750 range each time. Compare that to John McDonald, who has a career 595 OPS. The Jays will still go with McDonald as their primary shortstop initially, but Scutaro could win some time there as the year goes on. He's also a better option as a backup at second base and third base than what the Jays had last season.

Nice pickup for the Jays. As far as utility infield guys go, Scutaro is one of the good ones.

Why the Twins should keep Johan Santana

Rotoworld reports that the Twins have offered Johan an extention in the 5/93 range (I don't know if this counts the year still remaining in his contract). Surely the bidding will only go up from here, but the fact that he's willing to enter extension talks is a good sign for the Twins. He seems attached to the city, and the Twins should get new revenue sources from their new stadium, so the means are there. It's a good thing for them that the willingness is there as well.

With his impending free agency, teams were already looking to find out what it would take to get him on a trade. To attract the Twins' interest, a team would probably have to offer top position prospects, to boost a struggling offense. There may even be an argument for starting a rebuilding process this season, that would get the team on a longer contention cycle once the new park opens if it's done right.

But it is at least a year too early for that. With Fransico Liriano returning from Tommy John surgery, I feel the Twins owe it to themselves to find out what a Santana-Liriano combo could do in a full season. Sure, stuff can go wrong, but the potential is mouth-watering. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can form a nice offensive core, and if they can be complemented with secondary players, I believe they can find just enough offense to let the pitching take care of the rest. In this context, I don't think the difference between a couple of top prospects and a couple of top draft picks is worth giving up on Santana.

And if things go wrong, there's always the trade deadline. While the opportunities for getting high-caliber young talent are diminished in this scenario, the Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira deals show that the selling team can still extract top prospects. With all this in mind, I think the Twins should go for it, one last time.

So many news, so little time: Bonds edition

So, the feds finally did it. They have produced an indictment against Barry Bonds, bringing us the next chapter on the steroids saga. So, a few lines with my views follow.

My generally libertarian attitude on performance enhancing drugs aside, I see why the Feds would like to keep grand jury testimony as truthful as possible, by bringing the hammer down on possible liars. But at one point questions of priorities and resource management have to enter the equation. Why spend so much time and money going after a relatively small fish like Bonds, specially when you've already caught the big fish? You gotta admit, this sounds a bit fishy.

But what really disgusts me is the reaction in some sectors within baseball. We all enjoyed the homeruns, and the extra asses on seats, and no one wanted to see what was behind all this. And when the role of PEDs in baseball became apparent, some looked more interested in finding witches to burn than to look at the issue from a balanced point of view. When was the last time you saw Ryan Franklin mercilessly booed for cheating? And if you want to be outraged about illegal, performance enhancing drugs, then what about amphetamines?

As for the opinions on Bonds himself, I doubt they changed much. For 95% of the population (including yours truly), this just confirms what they have always thought, while the rest will probably wait until the result of the trial. What I think is that steroids were like a rising tide that lifted all boats, and Bonds was just the highest boat of them all. So, what I'm really looking forward to is the release of the Mitchell report, which hopefully will clear up how accurate this view is.

Stop whining about player salaries

The Wall Street Journal argues that players might actually be underpaid. It makes points about the diminished value of the dollar, but the most interesting point to me is this one:

The second reason these contract numbers are smaller than they appear is that there are far more overall baseball dollars to go around. In 2001, the first year of the first Rodriguez mega-contract, major-league players were getting 56% of their sport’s $3.5 billion in revenues. Yet this year, Jeff Passan notes on Yahoo Sports, players made only about 41% of baseball’s $6 billion in revenue. (Murray Chass has even suggested in the New York Times that the owners are edging toward collusion in their attempts to avoid bidding wars.)

At first sight, 41% seems like a shockingly low number, specially in an arguably labor skills-intensive industry like pro sports. Looking at my macroeconomics textbooks, the average for the economy as a whole is around 60% (but that number is quite outdated, anyone has a newer figure). In the Baseball Think Factory thread for this article, it is guessed that the other leagues are around or over 50%. In any case, expect some fireworks during the next CBA negotiations if this continues.

Cy Cy Sabbathia

Indians ace takes the Cy Young

In voting conducted by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, Sabathia beat Boston's Josh Beckett for his first American League Cy Young Award. He is only the second pitcher in Indians history to win the award -- the first being Gaylord Perry, who won it in 1972.

Sabathia was listed first on 19 of 28 ballots cast by two writers in each AL city and totaled 119 voting points. Beckett received eight first-place votes and the Angels' John Lackey received one.

More interestingly, the writers snubbed a 20-game winner, who had pretty strong credentials himself. Shocking. Not that they were wrong in doing so (although there were probably four or five "right" choices here).

Rookies of the Year

Braun takes it in the NL

MILWAUKEE -- In the end, the astounding things Ryan Braun did at the plate trumped whatever things he didn't do in the field.

The Brewers' third baseman won the 2007 Jackie Robinson National League Rookie of the Year Award on Monday from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Braun edged Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki to become Milwaukee's first rookie of the year since shortstop Pat Listach won the American League honor in 1992.

And Pedroia in the AL

BOSTON -- Back on May 1, when Dustin Pedroia was hitting .182, it would have been hard to imagine that just a few months later that he'd be taking home an award for his excellence.

But Pedroia never lost confidence in himself, and neither did Red Sox manager Terry Francona.

The diminutive second baseman just kept swinging, and his determined approach culminated in the American League Rookie of the Year Award on Monday. Pedroia became the first Red Sox player to win the trophy since Nomar Garciaparra did so in 1997.

Both are the results I expected and preferred. I spent a lot of time going back and forth between Braun and Tulowitski for the NL prize, and apparently so did the writers. As for the AL, the appearance of Delmon Young as the runner-up is a bit shocking, but he was nowhere near the Red Sox second baseman, so I won't complain too much.

Sepp Blatter is a protectionist jerk

Here we go again. FIFA wants foreigner quotas

On Nov. 6, the president of FIFA, which is soccer's governing body, reiterated his desire to impose a quota limiting the number of foreign players on European club rosters. Sepp Blatter said he would be lobbying the European Union to "stop the overwhelming presence of non-national players in club leagues." Under FIFA's proposal, each team could field only five foreigners in its starting side of eleven — roughly half the number powerhouse clubs like London's Arsenal and Chelsea regularly trot out. This has long been one of Blatter's pet issues. "When you have 11 foreigners in a team, this is not good for the development of football, for the education of young players," Blatter told reporters last month.

Beautiful. Blatter seems to think (or assumes we do) that foreign players sprout out from the ground. And the "you can't compare a worker with a a soccer player" line is a gem too. It's a good thing that this has no chance under EU labor laws.

As for the popular support for this, it is easy to explain. Besides the fan identification issue, quotas might facilitate the development of talent for the national teams. But does the lack of opportunities for local players in the Premiership causes English players to suck or be priced too highly, or the suckage and high price of English players forces teams to look abroad? It's a chicken-and-egg problem, but Arsene Wenger's argument that quotas protect the mediocre is a good one.

The Lidge, the Phil

Brad Lidge traded to the Phils

PHILADELPHIA (TICKER) -- The Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday acquired Houston Astros closer Brad Lidge for righthander Geoff Geary, outfielder Michael Bourn and a minor leaguers.

Philadelphia also received utilityman Eric Bruntlett.

Lidge, 30, went 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 19 saves for Houston in 2007. He averaged 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings and posted a 2.89 ERA in his final 53 appearances. The Lidge has 452 strikeouts over the last four seasons - most of any reliever.

Ed Wade trading away experienced relievers? Does. Not. Compute.

Is this the change of scenery he needs? Can he come back to his best form now, or did he fall to the curse of short closer careers? Still, CBP won't help his tater habit.

More crappy listmaking

A random list of players, trying to pass itself as the 100 best footballers ever

Maradona is sixth? Figo as the best "recent" player, over former teammate Zidane? Cafu tenth? Cruyff 21st, three places ahead of Ali Daei? George Best not on the list, but luminaries such as Gary Neville and Sylvain Wiltord are in? There's too much crap to pick it apart in a simple post.

Finally? Could it be?

ORLANDO – For the first time since he signed with the Astros in January 2004, future Hall of Famer Roger Clemens will inform the Astros today that he intends to start a season working under his post-retirement, personal services agreement. Through his agents, Randy and Alan Hendricks of Houston, the 11-time All-Star will inform Astros owner Drayton McLane the news today.

Link

Does this mean......

Yay for progress!

GMs approve instant replay

The collective general managers voted 25-5 during their Tuesday morning session to at least explore the possibility of using the video technology to help decide disputed home run calls: fair or foul, in or out of the ballpark.

"We've talked about replay for borderline calls -- safe and out, home runs or non-home runs -- for a number of years," said Bob DuPuy, MLB's president and chief operating officer, about a proposal handed down by the technology committee headed by Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd. "The umpires, particularly in a four-man crew, in many instances are 150 feet from the outfield fence where the ball crosses the line.

I can't believe that such an obvious tool to improve rule enforcement became such a controversial subject in the first place. The whole "human element" argument is completely bogus, and about instant replay calls delaying the game, well... baseball is already a slow sport, and arguments between managers and umpires over whether a batted ball was a homer or not already take plenty of time, that could be used to review the video feed.

In fact, my opinion is that instant replay, and technology in general, should be used at least for calls that directly affect the score. I hope the GMs remain open to expanding the scope of such aids, specially as HD tech expands.

Recent signings

Vizquel re-ups with the Giants

Shocking. The guy just had probably the worst season of his career and gets a raise. However, the idea of bringing him back is not terrible. The Giants have nothing outside Cain and Lincecum (not even help from the farm), and keeping a few veterans to avoid a 2003 Tigers-level disaster is understandable. He should just make money in the Adam Everett/John McDonald range, which is the type of player he is now.

White Sox, Uribe agree on one-year deal

Copy and paste the last paragraph. This deal is more reasonable, though.

Indians pick up options on three pitchers

Byrd was one of the best starting pitchers in the free agent market (which says a lot about its depth), so picking up the option is almost a no-brainer. The more questionable (if not necessarily wrong) call here is Borowski, a walking demonstration of the stupidity of the save rule.

Besiktas blasted

Liverpool wins 8-0

Liverpool regained their European pride and gave themselves a fighting chance of salvaging their Champions League dreams with a stunning 8-0 defeat of a woeful Besiktas.

Yossi Benayoun grabbed a hat-trick as the Turks were over-run in this critical Group A clash.

And Liverpool achieved their biggest winning margin in Europe since a 10-1 win over Finnish side Oulun Palloseura in 1980, and this on boss Rafa Benitez's 50th European match in charge at Liverpool. The win was also the biggest winning margin in a Champions League game.

Sadly, because of some errands and my cable channel's obsession with Real Madrid and Barcelona, I missed this game. But I'm sure gonna catch the rerun to indulge my sadistic craving for one-sided goalfests.

Rosenthal-rod

Ken speaks a few words

Sifting through the spin, leaks and outright lies, a reasonable person could draw two conclusions about Alex Rodriguez's decision to opt out of his contract with the Yankees:

1) A-Rod wanted out all along.

2) The Yankees weren't sorry to see him go.

The divorce looks messy because both sides need it to look messy. Rodriguez and his agent, Scott Boras, want to create a public backlash that would pressure the Yankees into negotiating. The Yankees, by portraying Rodriguez as greedy and Boras as impossible, want to justify their decision to walk away from the best player in the game.

Both positions are self-defeating, if not illogical. Yet, neither side appears all that uncomfortable with how this soap opera is playing out.

I generally don't like Rosenthal too much as an opinion columnist (he's an awesome reporter, though), but he does make some pretty good points here.

The king is dead! Long live the king!

Gold Glove winners announced


NL
P Maddux SDP
C Martin LAD
1B Lee CHN
2B Hudson ARI
SS Rollins PHI
3B Wright NYM
OF Jones ATL
OF Beltran NYM
OF Rowand PHI
OF Francoeur ATL (tied for third)

AL
P Santana MIN
C Rodriguez DET
1B Youkilis BOS
2B Polanco DET
SS Cabrera LAA
3B Beltre SEA
OF Suzuki SEA
OF Hunter MIN
OF Sizemore CLE

Notice the absence of a certain New York shortstop. Jeter has been defeated!

In fact, most of the clunkers are in the NL. Russ Martin over Yadier Molina? Lee over Pujols? Rollins over Tulowitski, Everett or Vizquel?

News Flash: Joe Torre does NOT walk on water

So says Doug Krikorian

After all, when you strip away all this insufferable Joe Torre puffery, when you take a slightly more discerning look at the situation than does the person who just guaranteed Torre $12.5 million across three years, the Dodgers have hired nothing more than a 67-year-old New York Yankee reject who hasn't won a World Series in seven years despite being the beneficiary of having managed the highest-priced, if not most talented roster in baseball during this time.

Sure, Joe Torre took the Yankees to 12 straight playoffs - he won four World Series - but it must not be forgotten that George Steinbrenner's wildly excessive spending gave Torre's teams a distinct personnel advantage every season over the opposition.

There was a reason for the Yankees wanting to get rid of Torre, and I'm sure his being the first manager of his sport to blow an 0-3 advantage like the team did against the Boston Red Sox in the 2003 ALCS was a factor, as was his team losing 13 of his its last 17 playoff encounters.

Never mind the typo in that last paragraph I posted. Still, it is refreshing to see this take on Torre's hiring by the Dodgers, in what had been until now a festival of neverending praise. Guys, he's just a manager, and he's just human. He won't make Matt Kemp hit .360 or James Loney hit 60 homers or make Jeff Kent get along with everyone or make Juan Pierre not suck all by himself. What he can do is finish his job on Scott Proctor's arm.

The wins race is on

Maddux re-ups with the Padres, one year

Maddux's return appeared to be a foregone conclusion after he went 14-11 with a 4.14 ERA for San Diego, which fell one win short of its third straight playoff appearance. All that remained to be done was some dickering between the Padres and agent Scott Boras.

Maddux, who turns 42 on April 14, had a player option for $8.75 million. Had he pitched 200 innings -- he finished with 198 -- the option price would have increased to $10 million. In addition, San Diego had a club option for $11 million.

I think it's pretty curious how Maddux reinvented himself as a LAIM, hence extending his career. The Padres will face increased competition in the NL West this upcoming season, but they should still be good enough to supply him with some wins. With Clemens being Clemens, he has a good chance of passing the Rocket and becoming the post-deadball leader. Maybe this inspires Roger into another tour of duty?

EDIT: About the whole "post-deadball wins leader thing", I forgot about Warren Spahn. Being 17 wins ahead, that's still doable, but it'll probably take more than one season.

Traitor, mercenary, not a true Yankee, yadda yadda yadda...

Andy Pettitte declines option for '08

"I have spoken with Brian Cashman, who has reiterated what Hank Steinbrenner said about the Yankees wanting to give Andy all the time he needs to decide about next season," Pettitte's agent, Randy Hendricks, said Monday in an e-mail to The Associated Press. "Accordingly, we are declining to exercise the option for 2008 and Andy will declare free agency in order to free up a roster spot for the Yankees.

"If Andy decides to play, I am confident we can reach an agreement with the Yankees within 24 hours. The only options, as Andy has stated, are the Yankees or retirement. He appreciates the Yankees' willingness to give him the time he feels he needs. I do not expect him to make a decision for quite some time."

This was unexpected. And I guess some chairs are being thrown around the Yankee Stadium offices as I type this. Maybe some inside the NYY brain trust had hoped and planned to bypass the pitching market this offseason, with their prospect riches in the area, but now they have to at least look at what's out there.

EDIT: I just noticed the Rule 5 implications of this. By freeing up a spot in the 40-man roster, the Yanks can now afford to protect another prospect for the draft. If they already have a handshake agreement to bring Pettitte back at a later date, it is a pretty nice (if somewhat sneaky) move, otherwise it's one hell of a gamble.

Who's on third?

You don't need me to say this, but Arod's opt out has left the Yanks in a difficult situation regarding their team building for the next season. What already was expected to be an eventful winter because of decisions regarding Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Bob Abreu, and Andy Pettitte's player option, gained a new dimension because of the need to find a new third baseman. Alex had the best offensive season of his impressive career last year, and no doubt that was a factor in the Yankees' run towards the postseason, so that needs to be replaced somehow. As always, there are financial considerations to remember.

The "easy" choice seems to be Mike Lowell. Being the latest World Series MVP winner will give him points with Yankee followers always looking for "proven" postseason performers and, while he won't produce at ARod levels with the bat (almost no one available will), he would bring a better glove. However, there are some flags to consider. A look at his hit chard shows how well tailored he is to Fenway Park, with a lot of his extra-base hits coming as a product of the Green Monster, so he would obviously suffer by moving to another park. Also, he might be expected to get the megabucks in free agency, with a 5 year/70 million dollar contract being rumored.

Another option has also won a World Series in the recent past: Joe Crede. His glove was a big reason why the White Sox won it all in 2005, and the year after that his bat caught up with it, producing a .507 slugging average and a controversial Silver Slugger award. It all went downhill since then, as he spent a good chunk of the last season on the disabled list, and when he was on the field he didn't produce up to standards. Rumors indicate that he will be non-tendered by the Sox, so he should come cheap, but with a back condition affecting his play on both sides of the ball, this may be a case of "you get what you pay for".

One player that intrigues me as a possibility is Adrian Beltre. Look up the word "fluke" on the dictionary and his stat line for 2004 shows up, but he is still capable of providing above-average offensive production with good power, and there's always the possibility of a good hitting coach unlocking some of that hidden talent that manifested itself in '04. But what really makes me look at him is his position in the shortlist of the best defensive third basemen in the game. He has two years remaining on a contract that turned from albatross to affordable thanks to quickly expanding revenues, but he has a limited no-trade clause, and the Mariners might not be willing to part with him, at least not without getting some good stuff in return.

An intriguing option is Garret Atkins. While his glove leaves a bit to be desired, he has an accomplished bat that, so far, has peaked in an excellent season in 2006. But, while the Rockies have a ready-made replacement in top prospect Ian Stewart, they haven't shown any inclination to trade him. And, of course, the wild card in this whole discussion is what the Marlins decide to do with Miguel Cabrera. He has the one bat that can fully replace Arod's, but he might outgrow the position soon, and the Yanks will probably have to offer Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain just to get the Marlins to answer the phone.

Obviously, when your team losses a future inner-circle Hall of Famer who just may have had his best season, it will suffer. And it also can't count on Jorge Posada being as good as he was last year, so that makes finding the extra offense harder. Besides any damage control being done at third base, the Yanks surely could use upgrading at first, and some more offense (specially home run power) from the outfield wouldn't hurt. But the biggest gains will probably come from the run prevention side of things, with Hughes and Chamberlain hoped to evolve into their anointed roles as aces. There is a case for easing up this evolution by putting up a strong defense behind them.

The Mets should have kept Victor Zambrano

Sherman: Rays to test Kazmir market

But it might just start there. An executive familiar with Tampa's thinking said if the offers for Santana grow to a substantial level, then the Rays would test to see what they could get for Scott Kazmir.

The thinking is that because Kazmir is three years from free agency as opposed to one year for Santana, he might bring nearly as much in return.

The Rays need multiple high-end pitchers, and Kazmir, just about to enter arbitration eligibility for the first time, might be too expensive and ready to depart just as Tampa is projecting contention in two to three years.

What's with all the cheap Florida franchises afraid of arbitration? The one thing between the Rays and respectability is comically awful run prevention. Sure, they have some promising pitching prospects, but so far only Kazmir and James Shields are the real deal. And no, I won't shed any crocodile tears for any poverty claims.

Speaking of awful run prevention, how about some defending that doesn't make you want to slit your wrists? The Rays would surely benefit from a pure glove guy at SS, even if he comes with no bat whatsoever. Omar Vizquel maybe? Could Adam Everett be had?

Focusing on the Forlorn Four

The Seattle Times has a pretty cool article

The Rockies' World Series appearance this year, on top of the Astros' in 2005, on top of the Angels' in 2002, on top of the Diamondbacks' in 2001, on top of the Marlins' in 1997, shows that it's possible to vacate this club.

So today's question is this: Who will be next? I posed that very query, by e-mail, to 20 top baseball executives (none of them associated with any of the four teams).

Promising anonymity, I asked them which team — the Mariners, Devil Rays, Rangers or Nationals — is best positioned to get to the World Series first.

I got 18 responses, and the results should encourage Mariners fans. By a wide margin, they felt the Mariners would be the next club to win their elusive first pennant. The Mariners got 10 votes, compared to four for Texas, two for Tampa Bay and two for Washington.

There is plenty to like about the Mariners. They have (at least, as of now) the largest revenue base of the club and, if anything, they are the team that has gotten the closest. The realization of pitching royalty will go a long way.

But my vote goes to the Natspos. They have accumulated a pretty impressive brain trust, starting at the very top with people who helped build the recent Braves run (and they have limited Jim Bowden's job, leaving him to focus on the things that he does best). They can expect a revenue boost with their new ballpark to be opened next year, they have the eight-largest MSA to themselves, and in the softer National League they arguably have an easier path to the series than the M's or Rangers (and they certainly have it easier than the Rays, who have to overcome at least one of the AL East behemoths to even get into the playoffs). Sure, things may look pretty bleak, since the franchise almost had to be built from the ground up after the massive disinvestment of the last days in Montreal, but when they're up and running, watch out.

In the "and I want a pony" division...

Sosa wants to play in '08, eyes 7 mill deal

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic -- Sammy Sosa wants to play in the Majors next year, provided a team offers him a contract for at least $7 million.

Sosa hit 21 home runs with 92 RBIs this season with Texas. He sat out in 2006, the Rangers gave him a $500,000, one-year contract, and he made $1.35 million more in performance bonuses.

"I feel victorious, and I think I proved that I have what it takes to stay in the Major Leagues," he said at a news conference.

All of you, who wants a SLG-heavy 102 OPS+ designated hitter? And is willing to pay 7 million for him?

*hears cricket sounds*

Fielding Bible gold gloves

P: Johan Santana
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Aaron Hill
3B: Pedro Feliz
SS: Troy Tulowitski
LF: Eric Byrnes
CF: Andruw Jones
RF: Alex Rios

Besides Johan and maybe Byrnes, nothing too surprising here. Let's see what the other Gold Gloves come up with.

It's called "negotiating"

Arod wanted 350 mill

The Yankees had hoped to meet with Rodriguez this week, and would have presented him with an extension offer close to five years and $150 million, to begin at the conclusion of his 2008-2010 contract, through which he would have earned $81 million. Through the Yankees' proposal, then, Rodriguez would have made about $230 million over eight years, and during the last five years of the contract, sources say, he would have earned the highest annual salary in Major League Baseball history.

But team executives were told, sources say, that in order to arrange a meeting with Rodriguez, they would have to be prepared to make an extension offer that would take the third baseman's deal up to a total value of $350 million. That means that the offer the Yankees intended to propose would have been more than $100 million short.

Remember when another Boras client that ended up with the Yankees "wanted" a seven-year contract?

Still, I would appreciate Arod a lot more if he just said "F**k the Yankees". At least it would be honest.

Eating some more candy in the Bronx

Yanks pick up Bob Abreu's option

NEW YORK -- Bobby Abreu received his wish on Friday, as the Yankees triggered a $16 million contract option to keep the outfielder in pinstripes for another season.

The 33-year-old Abreu offered the Yankees a consistent presence batting in front of Alex Rodriguez in 2007, occupying the No. 3 spot in the order for most of the season. A left-handed batter, Abreu logged a career-high 123 runs scored in his first full season in pinstripes, ranking second in the American League.

Pretty solid decision. The .300/.420./.500 Bob may be a creature of the past, but what he can still do is quite valuable (curiously, his speed seems to have remained with him for the most part), and there probably aren't any better options out there. Certainly not with the comfortable one-year commitment.

Marlins request contraction

Miguel Cabrera to enter the market:

With the Yankees and Red Sox both in need of a third baseman and the Dodgers, Angels, Phillies and Giants all willing to consider upgrades, the Marlins may figure this is their best chance for getting maximum value for Cabrera, who is two years away from free agency. The problem is that, with his weight up, Cabrera's defense has gone from mediocre to truly bad, and he'd make more sense as a first baseman right now. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have possibilities there as well, but they might not be willing to surrender as much talent to fill a hole that is easier plugged

Sure, first base (or even DH) may be in his not so distant future, and the Marlins might be trying to sell high here. Still, his bat will make him a star anywhere. Even though Larry Beinfest has shown an ability to build competent teams for cheap, the team's lack of effort to lock up its best player (and one of the best young guys out there) and now this rumor, well... that can't be good for the game, can it?

Scott Boras better have an ace up his sleeve

Toledo to make an offer to Arod:

TOLEDO, Ohio -- Alex Rodriguez a Mud Hen?

Spurred by an offhand remark from George Steinbrenner's son, the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens want in on the A-Rod sweepstakes.

The Mud Hens playfully offered the prize free agent a deal Thursday -- a contract proposal that includes a bonus for hitting 75 home runs next year and leading them to 10 straight International League titles.

Yankees manager to be an Italian guy named Joe

Girardi introduced as manager

NEW YORK -- Joe Girardi grinned, slipping on the pinstripes once more, signaling the opening of a new era in Yankees baseball.

Girardi was formally introduced as the 32nd manager in club history on Thursday, posing for photographs and reiterating his excitement for perhaps the biggest challenge of his multifaceted career in a press conference held in the Stadium Club at Yankee Stadium.

"I can't tell you how honored we are to be putting on this uniform for the third time," Girardi said after donning a jersey with the No. 27 on its back -- appropriate, perhaps, since Girardi will be trying to lead the Yankees to their 27th World Series title.

"This is the place to be. For the Girardis, this place is home."

The 43-year-old Girardi, the 2006 National League Manager of the Year, agreed to terms earlier in the week on a three-year contract reportedly worth upward of $8 million.

While his season in Florida raises some flags about his handling of young pitchers and his relationship with front offices, it may be too soon to reach a verdict in these areas. However, what is the evidence that he doesn't wreck young pitchers or has trouble getting along with his superiors?

Anyway, if a departure from the Torre methods is what the Yankee brass wanted, maybe Girardi was the best choice. We'll have to see what happens.

Free Luke Scott!

Apparently, the Astros aren't too interested:

The interest in a center fielder speaks volumes about how the Astros feel about Luke Scott. He ended with decent numbers, but his first-half production was bad. He was also in the training room way too much to please some people in the organization.

First of all, why so much longing for a centerfielder? I remember the Astros having a pretty nice one. What's wrong with this Hunter?

As for Luke Scott, I first noticed him punshing Venezuelan pitchers a few years ago. While he hasn't performed as highly in the majors, what he provides with the bat is pretty decent (.255/.351/.504 last year). While no longer young, he is still cheap, so I don't understand the rush to move him. Being on a team in the downward slope of the success cycle, he helps the Astros from falling too far down.

No token interview for the Dodgers

Dodgers get minority interview exemption

Teams are generally directed to interview at least one minority candidate for open managerial jobs, but the Dodgers were granted an exemption in this case by commissioner Bud Selig.

"The Dodgers have a great record on minority hiring throughout the organization," baseball spokesman Rich Levin said.

The minority interview exemption has become a counterproductive sham. Most of the time, the team already has a shortlist of candidates, and if there is not a minority in there, they add one just to go through the motions. It's a waste of everybody's time. The argument in favor is that this gives minorities a chance to impress potential employers, but how often do employers allow the chance to be impressed?

However, if the rule works, stick to it. If it doesn't, scrap it altogether. Applying it selectively won't achieve anything. There's this thing I'm quite fond of called the "rule of law"....